Barbara Patrocinio

Reporter

There are a few key ridings in the Greater Toronto Area that are shaping up to be some of the most fascinating races to watch tonight.

While many Toronto seats are expected to stay firmly red, there are pockets of real competition — and potential upsets — that could help tell the broader story of this election.

1. Parkdale–High Park: A Liberal-NDP battleground

Parkdale–High Park stands out as one of the few ridings in Ontario where the NDP is truly looking to make gains. With former justice minister Arif Virani not running again, New Democrat nominee Bhutila Karpoche, who has represented the area provincially, has been campaigning on the premise that she would be a strong voice to oppose both a Liberal or a Conservative government.

With Karim Bardeesy running under the Liberal banner, this could be one of the tightest races in Toronto.

Despite past close calls (Virani won the riding in 2021 by 4.39 per cent of the vote), the NDP is looking to buck the public opinion data and score an upset.

2. Toronto–St. Paul's: Liberal revenge tour?

Toronto–St. Paul’s (Liberals look to avenge byelection defeat)

Toronto–St. Paul’s is another riding to watch, with the Liberal Party’s attempt to reassert itself in downtown Toronto after some bruising setbacks.

Liberal candidate Leslie Church, who narrowly lost a recent by-election, quickly announced she would run again — and got right back to organizing.

The seat had flipped to Conservative Don Stewart in the by-election, but Church is seen as a strong competitor.

3. Eglinton–Lawrence: A heavyweight showdown

Eglinton–Lawrence has historically been a competitive riding, and this year is no different. Liberal Vince Gasparro, a former principal secretary to Toronto’s mayor and longtime community figure, is trying to reclaim Liberal dominance against Conservative challenger Karen Stintz, a former Toronto city councillor.

While Gasparro benefits from deep local ties and a strong provincial Liberal network, Stintz’s city hall experience and name recognition could make this an exceptionally tight race.

Outside Toronto's core, Burlington will be another early indicator to watch. The city has elected an MP from the governing party in every federal election since 1984.

Liberal incumbent Karina Gould — a former cabinet minister — is facing off against Conservative Emily Brown, who narrowed the margin in 2021 to about 6,000 votes. If Brown closes the gap or flips the seat, it could be a sign of broader Conservative strength across the country.

Milton East–Halton Hills South: A brand new battleground

Just north of Burlington, the new riding of Milton East–Halton Hills South could also be pivotal.

After redistribution, the Liberals only won the area by about 200 votes in 2021.

This time, Liberal Christina Tesser-Derksen, a Milton town councillor, is up against Conservative Parm Gill, a familiar face in Halton politics. Both candidates have significant local profiles, and the race is expected to go down to the wire.

6. Spadina–Harbourfront: A rare NDP pickup opportunity

This riding in downtown Toronto could be one of the NDP's few real pickup opportunities.

Community activist Norm Di Pasquale is running for the NDP against Liberal candidate Chi Nguyen.

Di Pasquale, who lost narrowly last election, has built his profile fighting the controversial Ford’s government waterfront spa development and relocation of the Ontario Place, and has backing from local MPPs like Chris Glover and Kristyn Wong-Tam.

With the riding boundaries shifted slightly after redistribution, insiders say this could be a rare downtown seat to slip from Liberal hands.

While Mississauga and Peel Region appear relatively safe for the Liberals this time around, attention is increasingly focused on York Region, where Conservatives are hoping to make gains in suburban ridings with sizable Persian and Jewish communities.

York Centre: A potential Liberal-Conservative swing

York Centre will be one to keep an eye on, with a recent Conservative surge.
This diverse riding has seen close races before, and Conservatives are hoping demographic shifts could give them a shot at flipping it back.

Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill: Tight competition

, currently held by Liberal Leah Taylor Roy, is another battleground.


The Conservatives are hoping to reclaim suburban York Region seats like this one, especially if the Liberal vote softens.

Markham–Unionville: An important test in York Region

Markham–Unionville is also a major riding to watch.
Traditionally Liberal, it has drifted closer to the Conservatives in recent cycles.
The outcome here will help signal whether Liberals can hang onto key seats in the suburbs north of Toronto.

Durham/Bowmanville: Conservative turf — but not locked down

Durham and Bowmanville are typically Conservative territory, but insiders note that a sharp NDP collapse could shift vote dynamics.
If Liberal support surges thanks to NDP voters abandoning their party, even these traditionally safe Conservative ridings could become competitive.

Vaughan–Woodbridge: Another York region fight

Although currently Conservative-held, it was a very tight race last time.
The Liberals are hoping that new candidates and a shift in momentum across York Region could put this riding back into play.


Where the action's at: GTA ridings that could swing the election

Read this for free.