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What to watch for in the province's next budget: big deficit, more spending and borrowing

During their election campaign, the PC's platform promised up to $40 billion in new spending, with $5 billion to the Protect Ontario Account to counter trade restrictions, alongside $10 billion in business tax deferrals and $3 billion in payroll tax relief for small businesses.

Published May 9, 2025 at 3:12pm

Barbara Patrocinio
By
Barbara Patrocinio
What to watch for in the province's next budget: big deficit, more spending and borrowing

Peter Bethlenfalvy is sworn in as the Minister of Finance during a cabinet swearing-in ceremony in Toronto on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

As Ontario prepares to table its next budget, experts say the province is walking a fiscal tightrope — caught between decisions from Trump’s administration and major spending commitments during the provincial election.

The latest fiscal update we had from the province was during the Fall Economic Statement, which downgraded housing start forecasts for the next three years, despite the province’s ambitious target of 1.5 million new homes by 2031, and projected a $6.6 billion deficit for the 2024-25 fiscal year.

At the time, we saw housing starts for 2024 projected at 81,300, a consecutive annual decline that left the government well short of its yearly target of 125,000.

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