Barbara Patrocinio

Reporter

Rumours of a possible early-election call are out and about in the legislature as Premier Doug Ford refused to rule out the possibility last week.

It all started during the announcement of the new deal with the Beer Store a couple weeks ago, when Ford announced a big expansion of beer and wine retailing was now set to start this year instead of in 2026, as previously announced.

The rush to announce the deal made reporters begin to wonder if this could mean that an early election was on the way. When he ducked reporters’ questions about the possibility, saying only that he would like to see his agenda taken care of, he fuelled the rumours.

Premier Ford fuels speculation over early election call

Last Wednesday, Ford told Ottawa talk radio host Bill Carroll that there would be no election this year, which leaves the door open for spring of 2025 as a possibility.

Political strategists say that if Premier Doug Ford calls an early election, he'll need to give voters a strong reason for going to the polls before the scheduled date, in 2026.

The fixed-date election law in Ontario says that the next election must happen four years into a government's term. However, the law contains a “loophole” that would let the premier call an election at any time before that.

, elections can also be called “when the lieutenant-governor sees fit,” which means that the premier could inform the lieutenant-governor that he thinks an earlier election should be called in.

Strategists seem to be split among what are the real odds of an early-election, but they are fast to weigh in the pros and cons.

that maybe it makes sense for the government to do a check in with their constituents to see if they're at the right point and ride on some technical advantages.

The first is the amount of money that the PC has already fundraised. So far, the PC’s have raised $1.2 million this year as of April this year, according to Elections Ontario.

Since the 2022 election, Ford's PCs have raised millions of dollars more than the Liberals and the NDP, giving them a huge edge in resources.

According to Election Ontario, at the end of 2023, the PC Party had an average surplus of $8.99 million, which left the Liberals far behind, with an overall surplus of $2.58 million, and the NDP in third place, with an overall surplus of $2.18 million. The Greens had an overall surplus of $524,924.

Some of these resources have gone toward high-profile advertisements, such as attack commercials on TV that criticize Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and a campaign starring Ford on the phone with the message "Listening and working hard to make things better for every single person in Ontario."

The second is a tendency in Ontario voters of always opposing whoever is in charge in the federal government. Following this trend, it would make sense for Ford to take advantage of having a Liberal forming government in Ottawa, especially when Trudeaus’ popularity has been low.

Since 1963, the party that won 17 out of the last 18 elections in Ontario has been different from the party that was in power at the federal level at the time. The only time this wasn't true was when Dalton McGuinty won as a Liberal in Ontario in 2003, while Jean Chretien, also Liberal, was prime minister.

“Typically given the history of how Ontarians vote, they vote one way federally and about the other way provincially. People feel good about a balanced kind of approach to politics, and it's easier for a government in Ontario to run against a federal government than it is for them to run against an opposition leader,” a PC source said.

The third advantage would be that the PCs are still leading in the majority of the polls, and Ford could take advantage of these numbers now before any major change happens, such as any possible unfolding of the Greenbelt investigation.

Finally, by doing so, strategists explain that Ford could catch his opponents off guard, giving them less time to prepare to head to the polls, while his Conservatives would be already “election ready,” a PC source explained.

“That could be a good tactic if you think that Crombie is still a new leader, heading to her first provincial election, and thinking that she might still have two years to prepare,” the PC source said.

Early elections have long been a strategy that incumbent governments can take advantage of. Before Ontario had fixed election dates, Prime Ministers and Premiers would often call early elections really to catch their opponents off guard and capitalize on their own public support.

But there’s a tendency that the decision might not be well-perceived by the public, backfiring on the government.

Former Liberal Premier David Peterson called an early election in 1990, only about three years into his mandate. At the time, he was 15 points ahead in the polls but through the course of that summer election campaign, the decision backfired on him: and  NDP leader Bob Rae defeated Peterson in the polls.

Also, some strategists warn that if it is too early in the polls, as in still this year - which Ford ruled out last Wednesday - it might be hard to justify to voters why this decision is being made.

“The average person finds it annoying to go get and vote; so if they have to do that sooner than expected, they might not show up, which would result in a lower voters turn-out that can impact the election, or they might as well wonder why and get curious about the reasons behind it,” said Andrew Perez, Principal at Perez Strategies and Liberal strategist.

But how likely is it that an early-election will actually happen?

“I would put it at 50/50,” said a Conservative source.

“Maybe it does make sense to go to the polls, if there is a strong ballot question, but if there isn't, then the government is in a position to continue with a stable majority for another two years. But this is always the position governments are in,” the source added.

“From an election readiness point of view, the Ford Conservatives are ready,” Perez said.

“They're out fundraising the Ontario Liberals 10 to 1. They have a caucus of over 70 members. They enjoy a majority government. So I have no doubt they would be ready to go. Doug Ford could probably call an election today if he wanted to,” he added.

On the other hand, Perez said that the next two years would be important for the Ontario Liberals to prepare and continue to build Bonnie Crombie profile as a leader.

“We need to fundraise and to nominate candidates and to renew and to get ready for this election. It would not be an ideal situation for the Ontario Liberal Party to be thrust into an election,” Perez said.

As for the Tories, Perez says they are in a strategically favorable position.

“For them [PCs] the risk is: could there be a backlash? Could it backfire? Could Ontarians begin to question why Ford is calling an election two and a half or only three years into his mandate? We just gave him a majority mandate two and a half years ago,” Perez said.

“He will have to have a really good narrative and a really good rationale as to why the Ontario people need to go into an election two and a half years into a mandate.”

This scene can be different in spring 2025, which will be three years into Ford’s mandate.

“That's a less risky strategy,” Perez said.

“If they continue to be leading the polls, and they have the money, and they have the campaign narrative, and they put out a budget, and they use that budget as a launching pad for an election, then they may decide to do that,” he added.

“But to summarize, I think calling an early election it's really more of an art than a science.”

A PC strategist said that although the opposition will definitely try to attack the decision of calling an early-election, there are still some things that might benefit the government if they choose to go for it.

“Opposition will naturally try to flag it as a distraction tactic with some sort of malign foundation to the conversations. But I think the reality here is that for Ford, getting a bit of a runway until the next federal election might be beneficial,” the source said.

“There  are lots of reasons for there to be an election, whether it's, uh, you know, a weak and poorly positioned opposition, or it's a Crombie leadership that can't seem to find its legs and support.

“But I suspect that the premier and his folks are putting this out as a trial balloon to understand what an appetite might be for an election, get a sense of what the response might be so that if they do look to do something, maybe say spring of next year or summer next year, that they will have had the time that is necessary to a fundraise or be make all the staffing and ministerial changes that are necessary to get a government ready for election,” the PC source added.

How likely is it that an early-election will actually happen? “I would put it at 50/50,” said a Conservative source. "But this is always the position governments are in."

Strategists weigh in on the odds of a potential early-election call

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