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Ontario falls further behind on 1.5M homes target as new projections drop

Even with optimistic growth in the coming years, Ontario remains on track to fall well short of the pace needed to deliver 1.5 million homes by 2031, leaving the province’s housing shortage unresolved and its flagship promise increasingly out of reach.

Published Mar 26, 2026 at 8:08pm

Barbara Patrocinio
By
Barbara Patrocinio
Ontario falls further behind on 1.5M homes target as new projections drop

OntBudget Lockup 20210324 Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy delivers the Provincial Budget in the Ontario Legislature in Toronto on Wednesday March 24, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

Is the government's goal of building 1.5 million homes by 2031 slipping further out of reach?

The province’s 2026 budget paints a sobering picture of a housing sector still weighed down by economic uncertainty, with new projections showing construction activity slowing and expectations shrinking yet again.

According to the fiscal plan tabled Thursday by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, Ontario is now expected to see roughly 276,900 housing starts between 2025 and 2028, a drop of more than 10 per cent from projections released just months ago in the 2025 fall economic statement.

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