A new provincial poll suggests the political ground in Ontario may be shifting, and not in the Progressive Conservatives’ favour, as a pair of self-inflicted controversies begin to cut into both the party’s support and Premier Doug Ford’s personal standing.
A survey conducted by Liaison Strategies between April 25 and 26, sampling 1,000 Ontarians, finds the Progressive Conservatives at 33 per cent among all voters, trailing the Ontario Liberals at 35 per cent, with the NDP at 18 per cent. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals opened a slightly wider lead at 38 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the PCs and 20 per cent for the NDP.
The numbers mark a notable tightening of the political landscape, coming just days after Ford’s abrupt reversal on a $28.9-million government jet purchase and the revelation that multiple inmates remain at large after being mistakenly released from provincial custody.
Inside the Progressive Conservative caucus, those episodes are already reverberating.
One PC member, speaking on background, told QP Briefing that the controversies risk striking directly at the party’s carefully constructed brand one rooted in fiscal restraint and a tough-on-crime message.
The polling suggests that concern may be well-founded.
The data shows a fragmented map, with the PCs no longer dominant across key battleground regions.
In the vote-rich 905 belt, the Liberals lead with 36 per cent, ahead of the PCs at 33 per cent. In Toronto (416), the Liberal advantage grows to 41 per cent, with the PCs trailing at 26 per cent.
Even in southwestern Ontario, long considered Ford territory, the race is competitive, with Liberals at 32 per cent and PCs at 36 per cent. In eastern Ontario, the PCs still hold a stronger position at 41 per cent, but the Liberals remain competitive at 31 per cent.
Northern Ontario presents an even tougher landscape for the government, with the NDP leading at 33 per cent and the PCs falling to 30 per cent.
Among decided voters, those trends persist. The Liberals lead in the 905 (43 per cent) and Toronto (44 per cent), while the PCs maintain narrower advantages in eastern Ontario and remain competitive elsewhere.
Just 27 per cent of respondents say they approve of the job Ford is doing as premier, while roughly two-thirds, about 65 to 68 per cent, say they disapprove. Only a small share remains unsure.
Those are negative numbers for a sitting premier and mark a significant vulnerability for a leader whose personal brand has long been central to the party’s electoral success.
Speaking on background to discuss internal sentiment candidly, the caucus member said the results, which place the PCs in a statistical tie or slightly behind depending on the measure, are concerning.
“We need to course-correct before that hardens,” they said.