Premier Doug Ford recently called himself a “prudent fiscal manager”—this is the same Doug Ford that said the Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne who he replaced back in 2018 was “reckless” in its spending. The irony is, according to the Ford government’s recent economic update, if the Ford government was as “prudent” as the previous Liberal government, Ontario taxpayers would save between $7 billion to $10 billion this year.
In 2017/18, provincial government program spending was $142.5 billion or 17.3 per cent of GDP. The latest projection for 2025/26, including reserves, is $220.4 billion, an increase of more than $2 billion from the original 2025 budget and representing 17.8-18.1 per cent of GDP (depending on the GDP forecast). Had Doug Ford simply maintained Wynne’s “reckless” spending at 17.3 per cent of GDP, program spending would be $7 billion to $10 billion lower.
Notably, the Ford government’s vast overspending predates the negative impacts of Trump’s tariff policies. In 2024/25, program spending was 17.7 per cent of GDP. Again, comparing to Wynne’s “reckless” spending level, the Ford government cost taxpayers approximately $5.4 billion extra last year.
Much of this increased spending has gone to corporate welfare. As researcher Samantha Dagres found in a recent analysis, Ontario government corporate subsidies reached almost $10 billion by 2023, or nearly triple 2017 levels. In recent years, corporate handouts have been given for everything from manufacturing automobiles and producing candy to supplying windows and training dogs. Alas, studies show corporate welfare programs fail to improve economic growth.
In addition to “keeping costs down,” the Ford government boasts in its economic update about “unleashing our economy.” But just as a government whose spending costs taxpayers an extra $7-10 billion this year is not exactly “keeping costs down,” the data plainly show the Ford government has done little to unleash the province’s economy.
As economists Ben Eisen and Joel Emes showed in a study earlier this year, Ontario’s real GDP per person, which is a broad measure of living standards, has fallen markedly relative to the rest of Canada since 2000, and the situation has not improved since the Ford government came to office in 2018.
The most recent data confirm Ontario’s economic stagnation. In 2024, real GDP growth was 1.2 per cent in Ontario versus 1.8 per cent in the rest of Canada. According to a TD Economics forecast in September, Ontario’s real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.0 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026—again below the national average in both years. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to remain stubbornly high: 7.8 per cent in Ontario this year compared to less than 7 per cent (on average) in the rest of Canada.
Poor fiscal management and failed corporate welfare programs are not the only reasons for Ontario’s long-term underwhelming economic outcomes. The province’s business and personal income taxes remain persistently elevated because the Ford government broke promises to reduce both.
Ontario’s top marginal tax rate is currently 53.53 per cent. Notably, according to estimates by fiscal economist Kevin Milligan and Micheal Smart, even when the top tax rate was 46.41 per cent back in 2011, before two provincial tax hikes and a federal tax hike, the rate was already so high that increasing it further would actually be so economically harmful as to reduce total government revenue.
As the evidence, including in the latest economic update, clearly show, the Ford government is neither keeping costs down nor unleashing the economy.
Quite the opposite.
Matthew Lau is an adjunct scholar with the Fraser Institute.
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