Barbara Patrocinio

Reporter

A new poll shows the Mississauga mayoral race tightening only weeks before the June 10 byelection, which could have major consequences at Queen's Park.

shows former councillor and ex-MP Carolyn Parrish holding a slim lead, with Dipika Damerla and Alvin Tedjo close behind. 

Among decided voters, 29 per cent said they would vote for Parrish, while 24 backed Damerla and another 19 selected Tedjo.

The Liaison poll was conducted from May 24-25, 2024, using interactive voice response technology. It surveyed 933 Mississauga residents and has a margin of error of +/- 3.22 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Compared to the last Liaison poll, Parrish, who resigned as a councillor to run in the byelection, is down eight points. Damerla, a city councillor and ex-Liberal MPP, has gained four points, while council colleague Tedjo gained two points.

City councillor Stephen Dasko is up two points to 12 per cent, while former mayor Bonnie Crombie's ex-husband Brian Crombie is up two points to nine per cent. 

David Valentin, Liaison Strategies' CEO, said that Parrish's drop in the poll is likely partly attributed to "recent statements... made during the election and, potentially, her decision to not attend future election debates."

"Her competitors, of course, seized on her remarks and played a role in their amplification," Valentin explained.

He is referring to some controversial comments made by Parrish that circulated on social media before a debate that happened Monday that she didn't participate in.

Parrish questioned the value of transgender washrooms, and said refugees "sit around smoking cigarettes all day". 

Parrish said her comments had been taken out of context, but she was slammed by her opponents nonetheless. 

Whoever wins the mayoral post will instantly become one of the most high-profile municipal politicians in Ontario, with Mississauga being the third most populous city in the province and the centre of the battleground Peel Region.

That means the vote will be closely watched at Queen's Park. 

Premier Ford fuels speculation over early election call

The top three candidates — Parrish, Damerla and Tedjo — are all Liberals, which NDP strategist Erin Morrison said means that Ford “doesn’t exactly have a horse in the race.”

Morrison said that the Mississauga mayoral election will be a totally different scenario from the Toronto mayoral election, where Ford backed Mark Saunders, a onetime PC candidate who was also a retired chief of police with the Toronto Police Service. He finished third in the race, with NDPer Olivia Chow winning the vote.

“But one thing we can learn from that election was that even with Ford actively campaigning against Chow, they both managed to have a great relationship,” Morrison said.

“We saw just this week, Olivia Chow naming a football stadium after Doug Ford's brother, former mayor, Rob Ford. And most significantly, we saw Olivia Chow pull off the deal of the century with the Gardiner and the DVP uploaded to provincial responsibility. That saved the City of Toronto about $9 billion,” she continued.

“So not necessarily a rivalry with a certain candidate, as it seems to be the case with Parrish, means that they won’t manage to get things done and negotiate if necessary,” she added.

Morrison is referring to an episode last year when Parrish defended then-mayor Crombie in a spat with Ford that stemmed from her criticism of the PCs' More Homes Built Faster Act.

Parrish accused Ford of singling out Crombie in a way he wouldn’t have done with other mayors like Toronto’s John Tory or Brampton’s Patrick Brown.

At the occasion, Parrish called Ford a “male chauvinist pig.”

Kymberly Carson, Parrish's campaign manager, opted to not comment about this incident in an interview, but said that Parrish has a "perfect balance" of liberal and conservative views, which might indicate that she will be able to have a professional relationship with the premier regardless.

"I think it would be a lovely, positive relationship between them," Carson said.

"She's able to work with any level of government, with her experience, she's able to work with any type of leader."

For Morrison, that depends mostly on how Parrish will decide to act.

“It’s a question of whether they choose to be productive or choose to be petty. Or whether Parrish would have the same sort  of skills that Chow has had when it comes to smoothing that over and building a working relationship with the province and with Ford specifically,” Morrison said.

Damerla has also openly voiced criticism against the premier, specially over pandemic rules, municipal noise by-law regulations and the aborted dissolution of the Peele Region. 

But in one specific quarrelsome matter, Damerla views seem to converge with the premier’s — not allowing fourplexes as-of-right in the province.

The Liberals and PCss are divided on the issue. Ford said he wouldn’t impose it on municipalities, but housing experts and opposition parties — including the Liberals under Crombie — have said allowing fourplexes as-of-right is an important step to address the country’s housing crisis.

Last October, when Tedjo moved a motion at Mississauga council to allow fourplexes as-of-right, Damerla opposed it. This could be an indication that Ford might have an easier time with Damerla.

“I don’t know who the Conservatives would rather have as their preferred candidate, but my guess would be a candidate who is anti-fourplex, because obviously the Tories are anti-fourplex. So there's going to be dividing points between some of those candidates and the current government,” said Liberal strategist Will Wuehr.

But for a Conservative source, whoever wins the race will have to deal with whoever occupies the role of premier, because it is “part of the job.”

“Historically, if you analyze the relationships between mayors and premiers, no matter how opposed they are ideologically, they come to realize that really the only way to get anything done is to get to the table and start talking,” the source said.

“I would hope that whoever takes up the mantle there is, is able to bury any hatchet that they might have and, and largely that's because Mississauga is a very rapidly growing part of the province,” the source added.

The PC source said that he believes the premier knows the candidates, and Parrish, who has a solid political career, is not a strange name. Ford also has a known history of working well with members of all political stripes, regardless of political divergences.

“There's no kind of guessing game about where she [Parrish] is coming from or what her ideals and perspectives are. So the premier knows what to expect with her, and she knows what to expect with him. But the difference here is that the Premier has shown an ability to successfully negotiate with municipal leaders that are of all political stripes, which Parrish would have to show for herself in case she wins,” the conservative source said.

But what if Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie wins the next election? Then the fact that she is the leader of the party and all the top candidates are Liberals will definitely play a role, strategists said.

“It will be obviously less challenging for Crombie, if she forms government and becomes premier, because surely it is easier to negotiate within your own party than with the opposition,” Morrison said.

“And because all the candidates are Liberals, and one of them Brian Crombie, is even her husband, so for Bonnie, I don’t think she will have any trouble negotiating with whoever wins,” she added.

“There's an expectation, given the current climate, and given the polling numbers for the premier, that whoever steps into that role [Mississauga mayor] works with him,” the conservative source said.

 that she is confident in her ability to cultivate a good relationship with Ford.

"He's the premier of the province and you know, governments change, they come and go. And what leaders have to do is find a way to work with each other," she said.

"I like Doug Ford at a personal level. He's very personable. The few interactions we've had have been very positive and I truly look forward to working with him," she continued.

"And I've never taken any personal shots at anyone, I definitely I believe that I will have a good working relationship with him."

Voters will choose the new Mississauga's mayor on June 10, and strategists dig into how each of the top candidates' would work with the provincial government.

As Mississauga mayoral byelection approaches, relationship with Ford government looms large

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