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Are there any safe seats left for the federal Liberals in Ontario?

iPolitics spoke to strategists from all political stripes and pollsters from Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research to analyze what seats in the province the Liberals can still bank on and what ridings are seriously at risk.

Published Jul 5, 2024 at 8:15pm

Barbara Patrocinio
Davis Legree
Barbara Patrocinio
& Davis Legree
Are there any safe seats left for the federal Liberals in Ontario?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes a keynote address at the 2023 Liberal National Convention in Ottawa, on Thursday, May 4, 2023. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

The Liberals' stunning loss in Toronto-St. Paul's last week has raised questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future at the helm of the party, but also about whether the party has any 'safe seats' left in Ontario, considering its poor polling in the province, as well as across the country.

Ontario is the party's breadbasket. Nearly half of its MPs represent ridings in the country's most populous province, with the Liberals taking 78 of Ontario's 121 seats in the 2021 election. In short, the Liberals need to hold its Ontario ridings if the party hopes to win the next vote.

That makes the result of St. Paul's so unnerving to Liberals. Carolyn Bennett won the riding for the Liberals by 24 points in 2021. In fact, she won the seat by eight points in the party's 2011 election meltdown, where the Liberals were reduced to 34 seats.

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