Headlines
CBC got a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/green-party-platform-costed-ontario-election-1.6449152" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sneak peek</a> of the Green platform, to be released this morning. It includes tens of billions for an overhaul of the economy, more independence for the chief medical officer and more oversight for long-term care.
The Tories' long-promised road to the Ring of Fire is full of roadblocks that they haven't been able to clear in years, the Narwhal reports in an exhaustive <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ring-of-fire-ontario-election/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FOIA story</a>.
More good polling for Doug Ford and the PCs, who are likely on track for another majority, CityNews <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/11/ontario-election-poll-doug-ford/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>. But an <a href="https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2022/05/ontario-race-tightens-as-writ-drops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ekos poll</a> finds the Tories with much less breathing room.
And here is the latest polling update from our partner Mainstreet Research:
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The Progressive Conservative lead is stabilizing and widening. At this point, they're looking at up to 80 seats. The NDP is tracking for 18 seats and the Liberals for 14. These numbers are very likely to change as trends develop in various regions. Small shifts in voting patterns can make important changes in seat projections.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">These projections are due to a combination of NDP weakness, superior PC organization and a very stable second-place Liberal vote in a lot of places. The PCs have a combination of strength in the suburbs and outside urban areas. The Liberals would need to break through in some regions in order to pick up the seats they need to threaten the Conservatives, but so far we are not seeing that happening. On the contrary, in addition to their traditional strengths, the Conservatives are also benefiting from favourable splits in many close ridings so far.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In northern Ontario, we are seeing surprising weakness from the NDP that threatens to strip them of a lot of seats. The Conservatives stand to gain those at the NDP’s expense.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The Liberals may be bouncing back in Toronto, but we will need a few more days of polling to see if a trend is developing there. This is the only region where the Liberals remain somewhat competitive so far, but it could shift a lot of seats.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In southwestern Ontario, we are also seeing the NDP losing ground and that is generating more favourable splits for the Conservatives.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The GTA is only getting bluer.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">It should be noted that we are still very early in the campaign and a lot can change. Next week we will see the leaders’ debate when voters will get to compare and contrast the leaders as they go head to head. Ontarians will then have to decide whether they want to defeat Doug Ford and, if so, whether they're willing to vote strategically enough to give a sufficient advantage to either the NDP or the Liberals. So far we are not seeing those kinds of indications.</li>
</ul>
Our barometer tells you which way the political winds are blowing. Check back in during the campaign as the weather changes, and follow <a href="https://twitter.com/elxnometre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@elxnometre</a> on Twitter.
<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-405576" src="https://www.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/barom.png" alt="" width="1200" height="1200" srcset="https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/barom.png 1200w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/barom-400x400.png 400w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/barom-843x843.png 843w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/barom-150x150.png 150w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/barom-768x768.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" />
In case you missed it:
<ul>
<li class="entry-title"><a href="http://send.qpbriefing.com/t?r=34&amp;c=123010&amp;l=5&amp;ctl=F8E27:6C74F647CA5C2680A2FCF9F34DE2C7F9103F5B7069ECCB07&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="2" data-ogsc="">It might be now or never for Andrea Horwath</a></li>
<li class="entry-title"><a href="http://send.qpbriefing.com/t?r=34&amp;c=123010&amp;l=5&amp;ctl=F8E28:6C74F647CA5C2680A2FCF9F34DE2C7F9103F5B7069ECCB07&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="3" data-ogsc="">Tories keeping Stephen Lecce despite ‘slave auction’ controversy</a></li>
<li class="entry-title"><a href="http://send.qpbriefing.com/t?r=34&amp;c=123010&amp;l=5&amp;ctl=F8E29:6C74F647CA5C2680A2FCF9F34DE2C7F9103F5B7069ECCB07&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="4" data-ogsc="">Horwath promises 40 per cent auto insurance price cut</a></li>
<li class="entry-title"><a href="http://send.qpbriefing.com/t?r=34&amp;c=123010&amp;l=5&amp;ctl=F8E2A:6C74F647CA5C2680A2FCF9F34DE2C7F9103F5B7069ECCB07&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="5" data-ogsc="">How the Ontario Party could gain the traction it now lacks</a></li>
<li class="entry-title"><a href="http://send.qpbriefing.com/t?r=34&amp;c=123010&amp;l=5&amp;ctl=F8E2B:6C74F647CA5C2680A2FCF9F34DE2C7F9103F5B7069ECCB07&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="6" data-ogsc="">NDP would ban riding-paid MPP ‘allowances’ and so might Liberals, leaders say</a></li>
</ul>
In other news:
It was another day of laying low for the PC leader, the Star <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/05/11/mpp-stephen-lecce-apologizes-for-frat-boy-slave-auction-as-ndp-calls-for-his-resignation.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
The Liberals dropped a candidate who published some weird and baseless claims about homosexuality, Global <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8827841/ontario-liberal-candidate-parry-sound-muskoka-dropped/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Disability advocates say the dream of a fully accessible Ontario is out of reach after the PCs ignored the issue, the Star <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/ontario-election/2022/05/11/ford-government-isnt-even-trying-dream-of-fully-accessible-ontario-by-2025-out-of-reach-disability-advocates-say.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
The Ford government is arguing in court that Ontario doesn't have much of an impact on Canada's climate goals, the National Observer <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/11/news/ontarios-emissions-dont-have-decisive-impact-canadas-climate-goals-province-argues" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
The Greens lost a candidate over the same Israel-Palestine issues that tore the federal party to shreds, the Observer <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/11/news/ontario-greens-lose-young-toronto-candidate-over-israel-palestine-stance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
TVO chats with an Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) recipient who wants politicians to put themselves in <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/whats-in-it-for-me-an-odsp-recipient-on-affordability-and-politicians-who-forget-what-its-like-to-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">her shoes</a>.
Provincial officials are investigating multiple cases of severe acute hepatitis in children, the Ottawa Citizen <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ontario-investigating-seven-cases-of-severe-hepatitis-in-children-including-one-from-cheo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Environmental groups say the PCs are in breach of the Environmental Bill of Rights, Law Times <a href="https://www.lawtimesnews.com/practice-areas/environmental/environmental-groups-concerned-about-ontarios-repeat-violation-of-the-environmental-bill-of-rights/366550" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Lots of candidates swung by the Golden Arches for McHappyDay.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
It’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/McHappyDay?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#McHappyDay</a> so after canvassing all day and soccer tonight I took Toria to <a href="https://twitter.com/McDonaldsCanada?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@McDonaldsCanada</a> to support Ronald McDonald House &amp; other charities. <a href="https://t.co/Y0EsUN5OdE">pic.twitter.com/Y0EsUN5OdE</a>
&mdash; Lisa MacLeod (@MacLeodLisa) <a href="https://twitter.com/MacLeodLisa/status/1524561346905493506?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The Liberals pledged $1 billion for clearing the surgery backlog, CP <a href="https://www.newmarkettoday.ca/ontario-news/ontario-liberals-promise-1b-to-clear-surgery-backlog-from-pandemic-5355255" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
People affected by overdoses want more from Ontario's political leaders, the Star <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/05/11/an-election-campaign-is-underway-these-ontario-residents-are-more-concerned-about-an-explosion-of-opioid-overdoses.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
After the Stephen Lecce "slave auction" revelation, CBC talks to Western students who have had issues with the school's frat culture for a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/lecce-slave-auction-apology-reaction-london-1.6449259" target="_blank" rel="noopener">long time</a>.
The Star fact-checks Green Leader Mike Schreiner for a week, dubbing him "<a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/ontario-election/2022/mike-schreiner-fact-check.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pretty honest</a>."
The cannabis market in Ontario could be in a sticky-icky situation after a data breach, CP <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2022/05/11/coming-tv-debate-is-make-or-break-time-for-steven-del-duca.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Far-right protesters accosted federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at a campaign stop in Peterborough, CBC <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-peterborough-campaign-harrasment-1.6449729" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Ontario Party Leader Derek Sloan was suspended from Twitter, Kingstonist <a href="https://www.kingstonist.com/news/local-ontario-party-candidate-suspended-from-twitter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Some are calling for the province to take over regulation of lawyers, instead of the Law Society of Ontario, Law Times <a href="https://www.lawtimesnews.com/resources/professional-regulation/lso-rejects-paralegals-motion-requesting-that-the-ontario-government-regulate-the-legal-profession/366551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
Ontario dropped license plate fees, but, as one unlucky man learned, you still have to renew them, CTV <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-driver-warns-people-about-licence-plate-renewal-rule-after-receiving-hefty-fine-1.5898777" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>.
In the opinion pages:
<ul>
<li>Professor Mark Winfield lays out the PCs' "dismal" <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/05/12/doug-fords-dismal-record-on-the-environment-and-climate-change.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">environmental record</a>.</li>
<li>Brian Lilley wants party leaders to address the rising <a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-party-leaders-avoid-this-top-issue-meaning-they-are-ignoring-voters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost of living</a>.</li>
<li>John Ivison describes Del Duca's "bland" strategy, which seems to <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/ontario-election/john-ivison-in-a-province-where-bland-works-steven-del-duca-finds-his-groove" target="_blank" rel="noopener">be working</a>.</li>
<li>Lorrie Goldstein does not believe NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will reduce auto insurance rates by <a href="https://torontosun.com/news/election-2021/goldstein-horwaths-pledge-to-cut-car-insurance-rates-40-is-a-fantasy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">40 per cent</a>.</li>
<li>John Snobelen writes that Horwath attacked Del Duca more than Ford at the <a href="https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/snobelen-the-northern-debate-highlighted-campaign-narratives" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first debate</a>.</li>
<li>Bob Hepburn opines that the second debate is where Del Duca can really make <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2022/05/11/coming-tv-debate-is-make-or-break-time-for-steven-del-duca.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an impact — or not</a>.</li>
<li>Université de Sudbury President Serge Miville writes about realizing the dream of the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/05/12/born-in-a-spirit-of-resistance-the-universit-de-sudbury-is-on-its-way-to-becoming-a-university-by-and-for-francophones.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">school he leads</a>.</li>
</ul>
Events
9 a.m.
Steven Del Duca will make an announcement. Strides Toronto, 1200 Markham Road, Scarborough.
9:15 a.m.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will announce the details of the NDP's Universal Mental Health plan for Ontarians. Dog-Eared Café, 121 Grand River St N, Paris.
9:30 a.m.
Doug Ford, Leader of the Ontario PC Party, will make an announcement about getting it done. Kitchener.
10 a.m.
Mike Schreiner will continue his Leader’s Tour and launch the Ontario Greens’ fully-costed platform. Centre for Social Innovation, 720 Bathurst St. Toronto.
11 a.m.
Steven Del Duca will hold a photo opportunity and briefly speak about buck-a-ride. Unionville GO, 155 YMCA Blvd, Markham.
12:30 p.m.
Andrea Horwath marks International Nurses Day. West Elgin Community Health Centre, 153 Main St SS 1, West Lorne.
12:30 p.m.
Steven Del Duca will meet local small business owners in Markham. Maydoh Restaurant, 1661 Denison St, Markham.
3:30 p.m.
Andrea Horwath visits Essex NDP Campaign Office. Ron Leclair Campaign Office, 45 Arthur Ave, Essex.
6 p.m.
Steven Del Duca will participate in a meet and greet with supporters. 224 Glenridge Ave, St. Catharines.
7 p.m.
Mike Schreiner will participate in debate: Guelph Coalition for Social Justice. Virtual.

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