Doug Ford returns to the difficult job of governing Canada’s largest province, but he left his opposition opponents with an even more difficult task: beating him next time around.

Throughout the election, a PC victory almost felt like a forgone conclusion. Ford and his team ran a tight campaign, on a consistent message, with the confidence and optimism expected from an incumbent government. When Ontarians voted, the question was not if Ford would win, but rather by how much he would win.

Ford’s 2022 victory echoes that of 2018. Although Ford entered this race as a “changed man,” he took care to keep the campaign grounded in his roots. “Get it done” spoke to the heart of Ford’s political philosophy: government is traditionally slow, inefficient, and wasteful, but doesn’t need to be when the right people are in charge.

By centring his campaign around a simple question — the party of "yes" or the party of "no" — Ford effectively painted his opposition into an ideological corner. Steven Del Duca and Andrea Horwath found themselves on the wrong side of that question every time they pushed back on Ford’s popular policies, like Highway 413. Hearing “no” in response to Ford’s aspirational campaign reinforced the premise he ran on. Ontario will only see progress with Ford at the helm. Some Liberal candidates recognized this and moderated their party’s stance mid-campaign, only to further confuse the electorate on what the party would, or wouldn’t do, if elected.

Ford effectively made “opposition” a four-letter word this election, and left little room for the other parties to manoeuvre. Of course, the NDP and Liberals offered up their own visions for the province, but Ford’s approach to governing forced these visions to blur together in the eyes of Ontarians. With Ford’s centrist approach, the opposition was left out in the cold when trying to accuse Ford of traditional conservative “cuts.” Opposition campaigns were forced to return to platform planks like universal childcare and pharmacare, but found the provincial electorate uninterested due to the federal government’s recent commitment to make both happen — and Ford’s commitment to getting both done alongside his federal partners. Niche policy pitches like the Liberals’ “buck-a-ride” transit were unique, but failed to elevate the party’s campaign around a core narrative.

The opposition leaders needed to find untraditional ways to run against an untraditional conservative leader, but neither found the right combination. Del Duca was forced to move further to the left and spar with Horwath over a shrinking pool of voters. Both were surely surprised by just how small that pool became as Ford rang in a total of eight private union endorsements, and nods from municipal leaders like Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens and Niagara Falls Mayor Jim Diodati. Rather than setting their sights on Ford, both Horwath and Del Duca were forced to spend their time and money fighting each other for second place, and deflecting questions around their continued leadership before the campaign even ended.

The path forward for both opposition parties is unclear. Ford will continue as a pragmatic and moderate premier. He’ll follow through with commitments like raising the minimum wage this fall while attracting investment to the province — particularly the auto sector — to ensure Ontario’s economic recovery stays on track. He’ll avoid unnecessary political risks, and continue building strong relationships across all levels of government. The result is a Premier with the confidence of the public, and the ire of the opposition. For the opposition to gain traction against the reinvented Doug Ford, they’ll first have to reinvent themselves.

Ford’s next mandate won’t be without its challenges. His success now hinges on what he and his team can actually “get done.” Infrastructure projects of all types typically span more than one election cycle, meaning it’s unlikely Ford will cut the ribbon on Highway 413, the Ontario Line, or the Bradford Bypass before the next election. Demonstrating progress will be key to success over the next four years. Rising inflation, persistent supply chain issues, and ongoing skilled labour shortages will make this a tall order.

However, the NDP is now facing a leadership race and the Liberals are grappling with both a leadership race and a worse-than-expected seat count as they continue to rebuild. Neither opposition party is prepared to hold Ford to account on his campaign promises — especially when they opposed many of the promises in the first place. Although Ford may not be riding the Ontario Line across Toronto the next time Ontarians head to the polls, he’ll still be able to make a compelling case that Ontario is further ahead than if he were not in charge.

Kyle Sholes is a former chief of staff to the Associate Minister of Transportation in Doug Ford's government. He is currently a Manager at StrategyCorp Inc.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all QP Briefing columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of QP Briefing.

Sholes: Leading the opposition is now the hardest job in politics

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