PC infrastructure minister Kinga Surma has a very narrow lead in Etobicoke Centre, a Mainstreet poll suggests.

Surma has 40.5 per cent support from leaning and decided voters, while Liberal candidate Noel Semple, a law professor who has caused controversy in the campaign over tweets and articles he's written, got 36.5 per cent. The poll's margin of error is 4 per cent.

Complicating the campaign is strong support for the New Blue party, at 5 per cent .

The People's Party of Canada did well in this riding in the 2021 federal election, with 4,000 votes, or about 7 per cent.

Provincially, the riding was held by Liberals between 2003 and 2018. Federally it has been consistently Liberal for nine of the last 10 general elections, the exception being Ted Opitz's very narrow victory in 2011.

Premier Doug Ford's riding, Etobicoke North, borders Etobicoke Centre.

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This Mainstreet Research poll was conducted on May 20. A sample of 612 people was interviewed by automated telephone interviews. The poll is accurate to within ±4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The poll is weighted for age, sex, and region to be representative of the entire adult population of Canada.

Mainstreet Research is part owner of iPolitics and QP Briefing.

Riding poll: PCs have very narrow lead in Etobicoke Centre

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