The wrap up of the federal election campaign means one thing for folks at Queen’s Park — you’re next.

A provincial election is planned for June 2, 2022, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. To paraphrase Samuel Johnson, the realization that if you mess this one up you might have to spend four years in opposition is undoubtably concentrating the minds of many of those charged with putting together a winning strategy.

Although it is true that provincial elections follow a different dynamic, the federal campaign has lots to teach provincial operatives, regardless of who wins.

Let me suggest five key takeaways.

The first is the most straightforward — don’t surprise voters. Even if he wins, there is no question that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau suffered by surprising Canadians with a snap election. Many are asking why he didn’t lay the groundwork for the election by creating a compelling narrative about why we needed one and making it over and over to Canadians in the months preceding the call.

Things are obviously different provincially. Next June’s election is fixed in law, and nobody is going to blame Premier Doug Ford for triggering it. At the same time, as someone who was a candidate in two fixed date elections, I can assure you that most Ontarians have no idea it is coming. Although some may eventually accept it as a necessary evil, many more will remain disengaged, disinterested, and difficult to reach.

That is why it is so crucial that politicians start communicating early and often that an election is coming and what it represents. If you want Ontarians to be engaged, they need to hear repeatedly about how the upcoming vote is either a chance to build on past successes (if you are Ford) or chart a new direction (if you are in the opposition).

The second piece of advice is related — be ready. Was it just me or was the one party that seemed unprepared for the federal election the one who called it? During the first few weeks of the campaign, countless observers noted that the federal Liberals seemed the most unprepared, disorganized, and lacking a game plan.

That is not as surprising as it seems. Governing is all-consuming, especially when it involves a bunch of senior advisers who are also control freaks. The temptation to squeeze through one more policy initiative, hold one more cabinet meeting or deal with one more minor internal crisis can take away from proper campaign planning. To be successful, parties need to put their “B” team in charge of the day-to-day stuff at Queen’s Park and have the big brains focus on election planning.

The third is the most difficult — realize that the ones you love the most will always hurt you the most.

Screen your candidates — all of them!

We all witnessed both Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole thrown off their game by news of the past misdeeds of their candidates. Parties need to know about all the skeletons in the closet of every one of their representatives and either dump them or find a way to get the news out early so that it’s a non-issue by election day.

The fourth lesson is related — beware of pandering to special interests. I am fascinated by O’Toole’s platform. His proposal to cancel the federal Liberal’s child-care program is risky and controversial, but it appears to be based on solid reasoning. Contrast that with his initial plan to reverse the Liberal ban on certain types of firearms. Hidden in the platform it appeared sneaky and nothing more than an effort to appease gun enthusiasts. The fact that this measure became O’Toole’s Achilles’ heel and not the child-care provision speaks volumes about trying to appeal to a narrow group.

Finally, think like a voter. One of the most interesting polls during this election found that Canadians felt that Trudeau was the most “out of touch” of the party leaders. Even if he does win the federal election, there is a clear sense that he has lost his ability to connect with Canadians.

The same can happen provincially. Queen’s Park is a giant bubble, particularly when you are busy governing. Even when you are in opposition, you start to believe in your own brilliance and when a certain policy doesn’t go over well you find yourself blaming the voters for not understanding it rather than looking in the mirror. Remember, it’s the voter who is always right and every party’s goal at Queen’s Park should be to try to put themselves in their shoes and listen to their concerns.

A lot of water has gone under the bridge since Ontarians last went to the polls. If the federal campaign demonstrated anything, it’s that our COVID-19 world is radically different from the one Ontario’s politicians faced in 2018. The federal campaign has shone a spotlight on that reality — provincial parties ignore its lessons at their peril.

John Milloy is a former MPP and Ontario Liberal cabinet minister currently serving as the director of the Centre for Public Ethics and assistant professor of public ethics at Martin Luther University College, and the inaugural practitioner in residence in Wilfrid Laurier University’s Political Science department. He is also a lecturer in the University of Waterloo’s master of public service program. John can be reached at jmilloy@luther.wlu.ca or follow him on Twitter @John_Milloy.

Milloy: Provincial parties need to heed the lessons of the federal campaign

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