Former NDP leader Andrea Horwath has a leg up on her competition to becoming Hamilton's next mayor, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll.
Thirty-seven per cent of Hamiltonians surveyed said they were leaning toward voting for Horwath. A similar amount (35 per cent) said they were undecided. But among her actual challengers — political newcomer Keanin Loomis (14 per cent), former mayor Bob Bratina (13 per cent) and labour advocate Ejaz Butt (0 per cent), Horwath stood out.
The results are "not quite as overwhelming as the Brampton poll for Patrick Brown ... but in a pretty competitive race, to have that level of support, it is a pretty overwhelming lead," Mainstreet CEO Quito Maggi said.
READ MORE: <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/07/21/patrick-brown-has-overwhelming-early-lead-in-brampton-mayoral-race-poll/">Patrick Brown has ‘overwhelming’ early lead in Brampton mayoral race: poll</a>
<div id="attachment_408993" style="width: 645px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-408993" class="wp-image-408993 " src="https://www.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Horwath-poll-843x664.png" alt="" width="635" height="500" srcset="https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Horwath-poll-843x664.png 843w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Horwath-poll-405x319.png 405w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Horwath-poll-768x605.png 768w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Horwath-poll.png 886w" sizes="(max-width: 635px) 100vw, 635px" />Mainstreet Research.</div>
Horwath did especially well among women, people aged 18–49, and those making less than $50,000 a year or more than $100,000. But she led among all demographics.
Interestingly, 64 per cent of respondents said they somewhat or strongly approved of the current mayor and former federal Conservative candidate, Fred Eisenberger (who has said he won't run again). That number includes 52 per cent of people who plan to vote for Horwath.
"That is unusual," Maggi said.
The poll surveyed 617 voting-age adults living in Hamilton between July 22 and 23 — a few days before Horwath announced she will be running.
All Ontario municipal elections will be held on Oct. 24.
READ MORE: <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/07/26/how-horwaths-clean-break-from-the-ontario-ndp-helps-the-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How Horwath’s ‘clean break’ from the Ontario NDP helps the party</a>
The poll also dealt with some top issues in Hamilton. Affordable housing is top of mind for many Ontarians, and Hamilton is no exception — 38 per cent said it was the most important problem facing the city. Other issues include roads and infrastructure (21 per cent), decreasing taxes (21 per cent), improving transit (12 per cent) and increasing and improving services (seven per cent).
Horwath didn't have an answer when CBC <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/horwath-mayor-hamilton-1.6530984" target="_blank" rel="noopener">asked her</a> about the top issues she plans to tackle. But she named zoning, road safety, climate change and transit as priorities in the profile. Her campaign declined an interview for this piece.
Maggi said Horwath may have "botched" her launch by not being prepared with policy specifics, but that it doesn't appear to have hurt her too much.
"These should have been easy answers for someone who's been involved in provincial politics for longer than most people can remember," he said. "Even if she just talked about ... affordable housing, it's the top issue across every municipality from our polling," he said.
Though affordable housing was the top issue among those surveyed, not many people want it built near them. Four out of five respondents said Hamilton housing is unaffordable. But more than half (52 per cent) said the city is building too much or the right amount. And 74 per cent said they didn't want any more homes built near them.
Finally getting the LRT project finished will likely be a top priority for the incoming mayor. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents said it was the infrastructure project they wanted to be prioritized — compared to 31 per cent who said roads and highways, and 30 per cent who want bus stops and routes prioritized.
Horwath has <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2021/05/13/in-brief-hamilton-lrt-fallen-officers-greyhound-the-cfl-and-more/#" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spoken out in favour of the LRT</a> in the past and in recent interviews.
Whoever wins the mayor's seat could soon become a "strong mayor," as the Ford government <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/07/20/other-ontario-big-city-mayors-say-theyd-also-like-more-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">looks to give more powers to the heads of cities</a>. The idea wasn't popular with survey respondents, however — 62 per cent of whom said they somewhat or strongly disagreed with the idea that the mayor should have veto power over the rest of council.
Mainstreet Research is part owner of iPolitics and QP Briefing.
This article has been updated to clarify that Horwath's campaign did respond to a request for comment but declined an interview.

Horwath out to strong early lead in Hamilton mayoral race: poll

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