With one week till election day, Doug Ford's cruise-control campaign turned its sights toward Andrea Horwath's home turf of Hamilton.
The PC leader bounced around the city on Thursday, ending his day with a rally about 15 kilometres south of Hamilton Centre, which Horwath has had a strong grip on since 2004. Winning ridings there would be cherry-on-top victories for the Progressive Conservatives.
The <a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/dashboards/ontario" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NDP leader doesn't appear</a> to be personally at risk of losing her riding, but signs point to the New Democrats facing their toughest challenge in the Hammer in a few election cycles.
Roughly <a href="https://twitter.com/CharliePinkerto/status/1529974728718315520?s=20&amp;t=V87GUDgtDQe3GJvOVHN7MQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">250 to 300 PC</a> supporters trekked to the Hamilton airport, including a dozen nearby PC candidates, and some of their volunteers.
They were treated to a seven-and-a-half minute long speech from Ford. Reading from a teleprompter, as he routinely does, Ford pumped up the PCs' plans to build Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass, grow the skilled trades, and continue backing major employers, like his government did early this year by promising <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1001604/province-invests-in-clean-steelmaking-technology-in-hamilton-to-support-future-of-ontarios-auto-sector">$500 million in loans</a> and grants to steelmaker ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Hamilton's biggest employer.
Right before the rally's real main event — Ford's 30-minute chat-and-handshake mission with attendees — the PC leader wrapped up with a passive call out of Horwath.
"It's time to paint Hamilton blue in '22," Ford exclaimed in what seemed like the closest the incessantly on-script PC leader will come to a Clubber Lang moment in this campaign. ("I want Balboa! I want Balboa!" is the first dialogue heard from Lang, the Rocky III antagonist played by Mr. T, in the movie's opening montage.)
<a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/dashboards/ontario" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Projections on Mainstreet Research's polling dashboard</a> suggest the NDP are close to (if not on) the ropes in two of the four Hamilton ridings they won in the last election. They won't admit that, though. Horwath laughed at the suggestion on Friday.
"Welcome to Hamilton Mr. Ford, it's a pretty cool place. We call it the Hammer — I hope you had fun while you were there," she said to a reporter a few hours before going to campaign in the lone PC-held Hamilton riding of Flamborough—Glanbrook.
The NDP leader was "offensively" campaigning all day on Friday, a.k.a. making stops in exclusively PC-held ridings.
Throughout the campaign, <a href="https://338canada.com/ontario/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polls have generally</a> shown the PCs decidedly ahead of Ontario's NDP and Liberals. Both of the progressive parties have been bogged down by the other in this campaign. The most <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/26/steven-del-duca-frames-ndps-fraud-allegation-as-sexist-as-liberal-candidate-withdraws/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent example</a> is their leaders' <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/27/horwath-responds-to-allegations-by-del-duca-of-gender-focused-attacks-on-candidates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">war of words</a> over the NDP exposing a Liberal candidate who was swapped in at the last minute for using the same nomination signatures as her predecessor.
As of Friday, neither NDP nor Liberal support has significantly cratered, which would buck the convention of <a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/opinions/ontarios-three-party-race-could-be-a-lot-closer-by-election-day" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ontario elections</a>. It would also help PC candidates in close races by giving them the possibility of coming up the middle in ridings they'd normally lose if the left-wing vote wasn't fairly evenly split.
Robert Martin, an analyst with Mainstreet, called this a "failure by both the Liberals and the NDP."
"To get people to come to you as a party, you have to inspire people," said Martin. Neither of the major left-wing options have wowed voters in this election, he added.
"They've done a really poor job to stop Ford here," said Martin.
The public posture of both the NDP and Liberals in this election has been that their main objective is to prevent another Ford-led PC government.
A source with the PC campaign told QP Briefing that the party is more confident about its prospects in Hamilton than in previous elections for two main reasons: ground the PCs have made with blue-collar workers, and Paul Miller's ouster from the NDP.
Over the last few months before the election, Ford's government introduced a number of pro-worker policies, <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/26/ontario-pcs-spent-years-laying-groundwork-for-worker-friendly-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paying off years of cumulative efforts</a> by Labour Minister Monte McNaughton to cosy up to private-sector unions and craft the PCs' "working for workers" narrative.
The PCs have made a point of emphasizing the endorsements they've received from private-sector unions during this election, marking its eighth on Friday.
Miller poses a problem for the NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, which he held for them for 15 years. <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/03/17/ndp-mpp-paul-miller-booted-from-caucus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">He was booted from</a> the party due to a string of behaviour that the party deemed unacceptable, capped by its discovery that he had previously been a member of an Islamophobic Facebook group. Miller denies he was. He's running in his riding as an Independent.
Ahead of the Hamilton-area rally on Thursday, QP Briefing spent the day there to get a boots-on-the-ground perspective about the parties' prospects there.
Eight voters found at random across the five Hamilton ridings were willing to chat, and their perspectives effectively reinforced why the NDP should feel worried, and why the PCs' should be optimistic about cracking New Democrat support in the city.
QP Briefing promised to either keep their identities private or to only use their first names.
Two retiree women found together while taking an afternoon walk said neither of them was impressed much by what any of the parties proposed during the campaign. They agreed they might spoil their ballots. If not, they said they're leaning toward voting for the PCs.
"I'd rather the devil I know than the devil I don't," one of them said. One lived in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where the NDP's Sandy Shaw is the incumbent, while the other wasn't sure which Hamilton riding she lived in.
Dean, a 32-year-old found fishing downtown, said he voted for Maxime Bernier's People's Party in the last federal election, but will likely sit out the June 2 vote.
Shezana and Jesse, parents in their 30s who owned multiple properties, were having lunch downtown, and said they intended to vote, but hadn't finished researching the parties' plans yet.
Another retiree woman, named Mandi, chatted briefly after she voted at a polling station in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas. She said she's a perennial Liberal voter, and is against the PCs plans to build more highways, but was resigned to what she feels will be the outcome: a second mandate for Ford. She said she still voted because as the daughter of one Russian parent and one Ukrainian parent she doesn't take voting for granted.
Emma, a health-care worker and mother of one who lived in Hamilton Centre, said she'd likely vote NDP, but hadn't yet.
Robert, a 65-year-old welder, was found spending his afternoon showing off what looked like Popeye-inspired tattoos in a park that was roughly on the border of Horwath's riding and Hamilton Mountain, where the NDP's Monique Taylor is the incumbent. He lives in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, he said. Robert was sympathetic to Freedom Convoy, and distrusts mainstream media and left-wing politicians, who he feels are determined to expand government to no end. He said he's voting PC.
The PCs are in the lead in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, where Miller's support as an Independent has undermined NDP candidate Zaigham Butt's chances, <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/24/riding-poll-pcs-lead-in-hamilton-east-stoney-creek-after-ex-ndp-mpps-firing/">according to a riding poll by Mainstreet.</a>
Since the Ontario New Democratic Party's formation 60 years ago, historically blue-collar Hamilton — known also as "Steeltown" — has been a stronghold for the brazenly pro-union NDP.
When the provincial NDP dwindled post-Bob Rae, the party lost its foothold there until born-and-bred Hamiltonian Horwath — herself known as the "Steeltown Scrapper" — led an NDP resurgence in the city.
She won Hamilton East back for the New Democrats in a byelection in 2004, a few months after the previous general election. In the next general election in 2007, Miller won Hamilton East—Stoney Creek for the NDP. In Horwath's first election as leader in 2011, she, Miller and Taylor won landslide victories in their ridings. Each has kept their seat since, winning by large margins in the 2014 and 2018 elections. Sandy Shaw won the new riding of Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas for the NDP in 2018, as well.
Flamborough—Glanbrook, which includes the city's outer limits but is mostly made up of its larger rural surroundings, is held by Donna Skelly of the PCs. She beat her NDP challenger there by nine per cent of votes in 2018. The PCs have tended to control its predecessor ridings, like they have in much of rural Ontario.
Every <a href="https://338canada.com/ontario/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">major public poll indicates</a> Ford's PCs are headed for another mandate on June 2. Polls also show it's possible he could win an even stronger <a href="https://338canada.com/ontario/polls.htm">majority, too.</a> That would be bad news for Horwath's hold on the Hammer.
Mainstreet Research is a part owner of QP Briefing

Doug Ford goes for the NDP’s jugular in the Hammer

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