Ontario is only about three months away from the start of the 2022 election period. Despite that, it is still patently unclear to me what the ballot question will actually be.

By now, each political party in the province is ramping up for the campaign. Campaign roles are being assigned, policies to be included in platforms are being ironed out, voter profiles are being created and lists of target ridings are being drawn up and checked over again and again.

It is undoubtedly an exciting time for politicians (current and hopeful), political staff and volunteers. The door knocking is already ramping up but, unique to 2022, the message at the doors may be a confusing one because the ballot question for this election still hasn’t been set.

In reality, the ballot question is likely a confusing mess of all three options listed below but, regardless of that, here are some potential options that will compete for attention come election day:

Pandemic management:

Asking this question to a group of informed Ontario political observers would likely garner a quick response: COVID-19. Like everything these days, COVID seems to be the obvious answer. Recent polling shows, unsurprisingly, that the COVID-19 pandemic is still the top issue on the minds of voters. But, after drilling down further, it is not clear that pandemic management is the actual concern of voters or what will decide their electoral choices.

It appears as though there is not a direct electoral link between the government’s performance on the top issues of the day and its electoral future. On three of the top issues in that same poll (COVID-19, the rising cost of living and housing affordability) an average of almost 61 per cent of respondents said the government was doing a poor or very poor job compared to an average of just over 13 per cent who said the government was doing a good or very good job across the three issues.

Despite the evaluations, those very same respondents supported the Progressive Conservatives at a 37 per cent rate, 9 points ahead of the Ontario Liberals and 12 points ahead of the NDP. If management of the pandemic was the ballot question, one would expect a high correlation between performance on the top issues facing the province and vote outcome but that is simply not the case. Though the management of the pandemic so far will play an integral part in the election outcome, it seems that Ontarians are not looking to punish the current government exclusively. They appear to remain very open to hearing how each party — including the governing PCs — will address the issues they care about most.

Trust and leadership:

The second possible ballot question for the upcoming election could simply be about leadership. In its most basic form, every election is a choice about who voters want to lead the province but, in reality, there are many more factors that go into that decision.

This time, however, the decision could be that simple. There seems to be a level of public understanding, and even sympathy, that the current government did not cause the pandemic but finds itself in the tough position of having to deal with it. This is rare political space. The 2018 election was about leadership, sure, but it was also about ethics, hydro rates, and trust — all issues brought on to the mainstream agenda by the then governing Liberals.

This time around it seems that most Ontarians — anecdotally I will stress — understand that the current government is in a very tough spot managing the competing tensions between re-opening, hospital capacity and the physical and mental impacts of the pandemic on Ontarians. Even if voters fundamentally believe the government can do better, they do not believe the job to be an easy one.

With all of the complications from the pandemic throwing constant curveballs at provincial leadership, the "plans" of each party could be irrelevant by the time they take office. Not one party has a crystal ball on what comes next in this pandemic, meaning Ontarians may find themselves voting for who they feel most comfortable leading the ship through choppy waters, rather than choosing the party that they believe will chart the ship on the right path.

For the opposition parties this will mean a referendum on Premier Doug Ford. For the PCs this will likely mean a referendum against another Kathleen Wynne insider. Either way, given the uncertain times ahead, the ballot question may have little to do with what, and a lot to do with whom.

The wildcard:

As alluded to earlier, the pandemic has created all sorts of policy issues that either were not on the table in recent memory or did not have the same level of importance. Stress on supply chains, massive labour deficits, nursing shortages, hospital capacity or inflation come to mind. Other issues like child care, the environment, housing affordability, skilled trades shortages or public transportation may be recurring issues but have new complications such as involvement from the federal government or new socioeconomic trends like outmigration. On the global stage, 2018’s impending re-negotiation of NAFTA has been replaced with concerns over Ukraine-Russia, new variants and continued economic downturns.

The point is, anything can really happen between now and June 2. Any one of these issues could vault to the front of the public consciousness with a series of external events well beyond the control of a few provincial political party leaders. Quickly, the election could become a battle over dealing with the next wave or rising interest rates. It is too early to tell but, like the Syrian refugee crisis in the 2015 federal election or the re-occupation of Afghanistan by the Taliban in the 2021 federal election, stuff happens. Though an outside bet, we should not discount the possibility of a yet unforeseen ballot question being top of mind.

After all, the last four years in Ontario politics, dating back to the resignation of then-PC leader Patrick Brown four years ago this week, have been an absolute rollercoaster that even Hollywood wouldn’t believe if pitched as a screenplay. From the election of Doug Ford to the cabinet shuffles to the policy changes and, of course, to the pandemic, it seems that things just keep happening in Ontario politics. With three months to go, would we be naive to expect anything less?

Mitchell Davidson is the Executive Director of the StrategyCorp Institute of Public Policy and Economy. Mitchell was formerly the Executive Director of Policy for Premier Doug Ford and the policy lead on both of the Ontario PC Party’s most recent election platforms. You can follow the Institute’s written material or subscribe to its podcast, Intended Consequences, at strategycorp.com/institute/.

Davidson: What is the ballot question for this year’s provincial election?

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