With the provincial government on the verge of removing some pandemic measures, the Omicron variant's burden on Ontario appears to be letting up, key COVID indicators show.
Top Health Ministry officials relayed what they've interpreted as good signs on Wednesday, but talked only vaguely about the <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/01/18/positive-news-on-restrictions-coming-this-week-premier-ford/">"positive news"</a> regarding restrictions that Premier Doug Ford said is coming sometime this week.
Key indicators of the impact COVID is having on the health-care system show the province may be close to getting over the worst of Omicron. Current public health measures like closures and strict capacity limits were reinstated to protect Ontario's fragile hospital capacity — which the government's done repeatedly during the pandemic.
"I'm starting to have more hope and cautious optimism for the first time in several weeks," Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health, said Wednesday while referring to the slowing pace that COVID is hospitalizing people and forcing them into intensive care units (ICU).
COVID cases are expected to reach their highest levels later this month, with hospitalization and ICU peaks to follow, the government projects.
Although there are more than <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/56688/ontario-significantly-expands-hospital-capacity-to-prepare-for-any-covid-19-outbreak-scenario">20,000 hospital beds</a> in Ontario, hospitals' capacities have fluctuated abnormally during Omicron's spread, which is partly because of how many nurses have gotten sick with the virus. Ontario was already short on nurses before the pandemic, and nurse burnout from COVID has added to some <a href="https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/burnout-in-hospital-based-healthcare-workers-during-covid-19/">hospitals staffing problems</a>. As of Wednesday, 4,132 patients in Ontario hospitals had tested positive for the virus, the highest number in the pandemic so far. Fifty-three per cent of these people were admitted due to COVID.
There are 589 people in ICUs in Ontario with COVID, including 82 per cent who were admitted because of their COVID illness. Ontario's total ICU <a href="https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations">capacity is 2,343</a>, and there are currently 479 unoccupied beds.
Moore said another good sign for Ontario is that the test positivity rate of provincially tracked tests has "stabilized" between 20 to 25 per cent after it surpassed 30 per cent at the end of 2020. The government is no longer offering publicly funded testing to most Ontarians after its capacity to do so peaked in December.
"When considered alongside other data that we track such as capacity and length of stay in hospitals and ICU, this is an encouraging sign that we may — MAY — be reaching the peak of Omicron in Ontario in the coming weeks," he said.
"We're starting to see glimmers of hope," Health Minister Christine Elliott added.
As Omicron's spread accelerated in Ontario in December, Ford's government gradually reimplemented restrictions to slow its contagion. <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2022/01/03/ont-pausing-surgeries-closing-gyms-schools-dining-due-to-covid/">On Jan. 5</a>, Ontario was returned under near lockdown conditions and extreme measures — like closing all schools and pausing all non-essential surgeries — were put in place.
Schools reopened for in-person learning on Monday, although a major blizzard covering where most Ontarians live have kept some closed through Wednesday.
At Wednesday's press conference, neither Moore nor Elliott would reveal much about upcoming plans to remove restrictions.
"We know that people and businesses need certainty on what the future looks like, and as the premier mentioned yesterday, we will be providing more clarity later this week," said Elliott, adding that cabinet was taking into account the positive indicators she and Moore emphasized on Wednesday to inform its decisions.
In his role as chief medical officer of health, Moore provides advice to cabinet, but doesn't hold authority over any of its decisions. While talking about looming changes to restrictions, he said he's confident a reopening of the province "will be phased, it will be gradual, (and) it will be based on data."
The restrictions put in place on Jan. 5 were originally announced to last until "at least" Jan. 26.
Last week, Moore said he "can't guarantee" businesses will reopen on that date. Asked about those earlier comments on Wednesday, he said the choices are "a government decision" left to Ford and his cabinet.
"The premier, I believe, will be making a statement on this and we will be continually reviewing data to inform that decision," the chief medical officer of health said.
Moore's next weekly update to the public about COVID-19 is scheduled on Thursday afternoon at 3 p.m. Ford's government has at times used this update to announce pandemic policy changes. It was not mentioned during Wednesday's press conference whether this was the plan this Thursday.
Officials on Wednesday also continued urging people who haven't yet been vaccinated against COVID to get their shots.
Of Ontario's 589 ICU patients with COVID, almost <a href="https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizedAndICU">50 per cent</a> aren't fully vaccinated, even though only 10 per cent of the adult population is part of this cohort.
"This alone demonstrates the positive protection that vaccination can provide against these severe outcomes, and the benefits of vaccination against severe outcomes have been shown across all age groups," Moore said.
"I want all Ontarians to know our vaccines are safe and effective," Elliott said. "It's the best protection you have against COVID and Omicron."

COVID indicators ‘glimmers of hope’ in Ontario as fewer restrictions loom

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