The provincial ridings with the highest number of donors to the so-called "Freedom Convoy" were over-representatively controlled by Progressive Conservative MPPs, analysis of leaked GiveSendGo data shows.
Of the ridings with the top half number of total donations made to Ottawa protesters, 66 per cent are represented by PC MPPs. The PCs hold 55 per cent of occupied seats in the Ontario legislature.
NDP MPPs control 20 per cent of the most-frequently donating ridings and 33 per cent of occupied seats; and Liberal MPPs control five per cent of the top-donating ridings and six per cent of all seats.
Analysis of the donor data also shows an outsized number of donations came from working class, rural ridings.
Information including names, email addresses and postal codes of some donors were hacked and circulated online in mid-February. Those donors made more than 90,000 donations of more than $10 million to a leader of the Ottawa protests' GiveSendGo crowdfunding drive.
Mainstreet Research analyzed this leaked data in collaboration with QP Briefing. Using postal codes from the credit cards that made the donations, Mainstreet grouped donations by provincial riding.
The GiveSendGo data does not show a complete picture of donations to protesters, as other funds may have been given through other websites, by e-transfer or in cryptocurrency.
<h3>The breakdown</h3>
<img class="aligncenter wp-image-402096 size-large" src="https://www.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-843x562.png" alt="" width="843" height="562" srcset="https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-843x562.png 843w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-405x270.png 405w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-768x512.png 768w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-1536x1024.png 1536w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-2048x1365.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 843px) 100vw, 843px" />
<img class="alignnone wp-image-402175 size-large" src="https://www.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-MPP-cartogram-1-843x562.png" alt="" width="843" height="562" srcset="https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-MPP-cartogram-1-843x562.png 843w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-MPP-cartogram-1-405x270.png 405w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-MPP-cartogram-1-768x512.png 768w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-MPP-cartogram-1-1536x1024.png 1536w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-MPP-cartogram-1-2048x1365.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 843px) 100vw, 843px" />
The riding with the highest number of donors was Oxford, represented by PC MPP Ernie Hardeman, where 191 donations gave a combined $24,605 to the protesters in Ottawa.
The Progressive Conservatives held nine of the 12 ridings with 160 or more donations. The rest were held by two NDP MPPs and one independent, former PC Jim Wilson.
Mainstreet grouped the number of donations per riding in intervals of 40, up to those where more than 160 individual donations were made. Of these ridings with the most number of donations, three are held by PC cabinet ministers: Lisa Thompson (Huron—Bruce), David Piccini (Northumberland–Peterborough South) and Merrilee Fullerton (Kanata–Carleton). Nearly 500 donations were made from those ministers' ridings combined, totalling $57,207.
Another minister, Jill Dunlop, had the riding with the highest donation amount: $104,576, which came from 121 donors.
Two NDP MPPs also occupy seats where 160 or more donations were made to the convoy. Taras Natyshak, the MPP for Essex, had 176 donors in his riding send $23,883 to protesters. Wayne Gates from Niagara Falls had 172 donors contribute $17,485.
A number of MPPs with 160 or more donors are not running for re-election, including Natyshak, PC MPP Bill Walker (Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound), PC MPP Jeff Yurek (Elgin—Middlesex—London) and Wilson (Simcoe—Grey).
None of the MPPs responded to requests for comment before publishing time.
<h3>Implications</h3>
Alex McPhee, a cartographer with Mainstreet Research, compiled the data for QP Briefing.
"Looking at these trends, we're going to see a complex interplay of everything," McPhee said. "We're going to be seeing the effects of race and immigration, low and high income, low and high education, and urbanization and rural communities. But untangling all of it is a fairly difficult, even at the best of time."
On the upcoming election, McPhee said this might have implications for the PCs' campaign strategy, especially in the broader global context of conservative groups pivoting away from traditional conservatives and moving in more populist directions like Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have.
For the NDP to compete and have a hope in forming a majority, McPhee says they'll need to defend ridings like Essex, which has a high number of donors, total donations and goes Conservative at the federal level.
"A lot of identified donors in this list are business owners, not factory workers. This is kind of true of all political activity, because people who are really living paycheck-to-paycheck are probably going to have a harder time taking a month to participate in a in a prolonged street protest," said McPhee.
Partisanship, on the surface, doesn't look like a significant driver of donations, according to Carleton University associate professor Erin Tolley, the Canada Research Chair in gender, race and inclusive politics.
She referenced Premier Doug Ford's riding as an example. Ford's riding had 56 donations, totalling $10,916. Both numbers were lower than the median riding, which saw $11,014.50 spread out across 105 donations.
"Etobicoke North is racially diverse, but it’s also one of the lower-income ridings; fewer economic resources could explain the low number of donors moreso than the racial diversity of the riding," Tolley said.
Without making sweeping claims about the data, Tolley said that income and race are so highly correlated it would be difficult to establish a direct relationship with the donations without controls in the data, but the donations do not outwardly reflect partisan leaning.
"Compare Etobicoke North to Etobicoke—Lakeshore and Etobicoke Centre, which are less racially diverse but also higher-income and have a higher number of donors. Meanwhile, Humber River—Black Creek, which is one of the lowest-income ridings and also fairly racially diverse, has a low number of donors."
<img class="alignnone wp-image-402101 size-large" src="https://www.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-dollar-amount-1-843x562.png" alt="" width="843" height="562" srcset="https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-dollar-amount-1-843x562.png 843w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-dollar-amount-1-405x270.png 405w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-dollar-amount-1-768x512.png 768w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-dollar-amount-1-1536x1024.png 1536w, https://old.qpbriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GSG-donors-cartogram-dollar-amount-1-2048x1365.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 843px) 100vw, 843px" />
<h3>Campaign strategies</h3>
Each of the party's leaders in the chamber said discussions need to be had with constituents about the discontent that led them to donating to the convoy.
Government House Leader Paul Calandra, whose riding of Markham—Stouffville had 54 donors send $4,737, said the entire government needs to do a better job of "understanding what it is that brought people to make these donations."
He also suggested the federal government's carbon emissions pricing mechanism is forcing the cost of living go up, which was one reason people made have donated to the convoy.
"When you saw those protests, it wasn't just about truckers," Calandra said. "It was about the carbon tax and the impact that was having on our farmers."
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said she didn't support the protesters in Ottawa, and that most Ontarians would agree with her, but that people had the "right to donate to whatever cause they so choose."
"Certainly that's not something I'm supportive of," Horwath said. Her riding had 71 donors contribute $6,053 to the cause in Ottawa.
Horwath blamed increased cost of living on the Ford government, and said "everyday families are the ones that are suffering and being ignored by the government."
John Fraser, the house leader for the Liberal caucus, said that some of the donors might not have seen what was happening on the ground in Ottawa, blaming the federal Conservatives for amplifying messages that painted the protests as "a thousand times Canada Day."
Fraser's riding of Ottawa South had 89 donations sending $8,791 to the protesters.
"There are people who are anti-vaccination in my riding. I've had interactions with them where they're very angry and they're not reasonable," Fraser said. "And I've had subsequent interactions where we've been able to listen to each other have a reasonable conversation. That's what we need here."
Green Leader Mike Schreiner, whose riding saw 118 donations contribute $11,278 to the convoy, said he's already started speaking with donors from his riding.
"I think it's important for me to have conversations with people who I disagree with. I clearly think the occupation of Ottawa crossed a line," Schreiner said. "But that doesn't mean that I shouldn't reach out and have conversations with my constituents and encourage them to protect all people in our community and protect our health-care system."
Independent MPP Randy Hillier was a participant in the protests and is now under investigation by the Ottawa police for inflammatory social media posts he made during the protests. Those same social media posts will bar him from returning to the legislature unless he apologizes for them, a decision reached unanimously by MPPs on last week.
While Hillier's rhetoric has been heavily anti-public health measures and anti-vaccination, his riding was one of the most vaccinated in Ontario, and donations to the convoy reflect this disparity. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston saw 139 donations totalling $12,667. Both numbers are only slightly above the average riding.
<h3>The protests</h3>
The Ottawa protests began on Jan. 28, when thousands of loosely organized demonstrators arrived in the nation's capital for a rally originally meant to oppose the federal government's COVID-19 vaccine mandates for transport truck drivers.
Ottawa's police failed to contain protesters from the get-go, and between hundreds to thousands occupied the city's downtown for the next three-plus weeks.
It eventually became clear some protesters were being earnest in threatening not to leave until all COVID rules and restrictions were removed by all Canadian governments.
Ford at first expressed sympathy for the protesters before later asking them to leave. By Feb. 6, Ottawa declared a state of emergency and another protest blockading the Ambassador Bridge — a key trade passageway between Windsor and Detroit — increased pressure on federal, provincial and municipal governments to act.
On Feb. 11, Ford declared a provincewide state of emergency.
On Feb. 14, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act for the first time in Canadian history to deal with the protests.
On Feb. 19, Ottawa police, aided by RCMP, OPP and other police from around the country, conducted an operation unlike any before in Canada's history, and cleared the downtown core of the remaining protesters, arresting around 100 demonstrators.
<h3>GiveSendGo leaks</h3>
The whistleblowing group Distributed Denial of Secrets distributed the list of convoy donors' list and details to media after GiveSendGo was hacked on Feb. 14. The group said it was not responsible for the hack.
Since then, multiple reports have covered the mixed international origins of the donations and individuals involved in donating. Ontario police officers were involved in some of the donations, the Toronto Star <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2022/02/22/ontario-police-officers-are-named-in-leaked-list-of-donors-to-the-freedom-convoy.html?li_source=LI&amp;li_medium=thestar_recommended_for_you" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has reported</a>, and a senior official with Ontario's solicitor general's office was fired after <a href="https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/02/15/senior-staffer-of-solicitor-general-out-of-job-after-donating-to-freedom-convoy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reporting from QP Briefing </a>confirmed she had donated to the convoy as well.

PC ridings donated more often than others to ‘Freedom Convoy’: analysis

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